This data analysis shows which DC sports fans are safer on game days - Technical.ly DC

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This data analysis shows which DC sports fans are safer on game days

District Ninja wondered who's more at risk for crime: Nationals fans or Wizards fans?

Be safe out there, G-Man.

(Photo by Flickr user Keith Allison, used under a Creative Commons license)

Civic data nonprofit District Ninja took D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier’s recent departure for the NFL as an opportunity to explore crime rates for District sports fans. The volunteer-run outfit worked with analytics consulting firm B3 Analytics compared the risk of crime for Wizards fans versus Nationals by using an assortment of variables — and they didn’t pull any punches.

“After reviewing [the] numbers it is obvious that much like their record, when it comes to crime, things also look worse for Wizards fans than National fans,” District Ninja’s report reads.

That’s because, according to District Ninja’s look at data from OpenDataDC, CodeForDC and sports stats sites, those attending Wizards games are 5.77 times more at risk for crime than those attending Nationals games on game days.

See the report

District Ninja also looked at whether fans’ risk was affected by the following variables:

  • Type of crime: theft from vehicles was most common for both fan groups
  • Distance from stadium: the closer to the stadium, the more theft for both fan groups
  • Day of the week: Thursday appears to be the safest day of the week
  • Time of year: more crimes happened in summer

The report noted that crime coverage in the media likely means these results won’t surprise many fans.

But what is unexpected is that District Ninja found sports fans are just as likely to experience crime on game days versus non-game days. In other words, people’s risk of theft at the Verizon Center or National’s Park isn’t lower when there’s no game.

For District Ninja’s forecast on future crime risks, or their analysis methodology, check out the “Ninja Notes” at the bottom of District Ninja’s report.

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Now that District Ninja’s tests have showed Wizard’s fans relative crime risks, it begs the question, will the the D.C. Police Department — or the Wizards — begin testing solutions?

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