Economy League report: ‘Is Philadelphia Heading for a Recession?’

As national economic experts have began talks of a possible recession heading our way, the Economy League of Greater Philadelphia took a closer look at the situation closer to home to make a better call.

In the report, “Is Philadelphia Heading for a Recession? What Do the Data Say?” author and Economy League Project Manager Michael Shields writes that that recessions are essentially periods of economic decline and are the result of “shifting economic factors” that affect various markets.

Last month, the National League of Cities (NLC) debuted its annual City Fiscal Conditions report, which found that tax revenue streams for major U.S. cities began to slightly decline in 2019 after six years of continuous growth.

Shields’ research essentially found that there’s some evidence that a recession is forthcoming, but Philadelphia’s diverse economy would be less affected than other cities.

The Economy League conducted a similar analysis using Philadelphia’s revenue data, the project manager said, and didn’t yet see signs of recession: Philadelphia’s economy is built on a variety of industries, and cities with this makeup often experiences recessions later than peer cities.

“At its core are a cluster of relatively non-volatile, nonprofit-based ‘eds-and-meds’ institutions that are slow to experience the brunt of economic downturn after it trickles its way down from more susceptible industries like finance and tech,” Shields wrote.

In the case that this analysis is wrong, the City of Philadelphia doesn’t want to caught in the rain: Check out The Philadelphia Inquirer’s reporting on how local government is prepping for the possibility of tax revenue shortfalls.