(Photo by Roberto Torres)
In honor of Tuesday’s primary elections — happening across Pennsylvania and three other states — Tannen’s blog rolled out a data analytics model that estimates turnout numbers across town based on self-reported voter data.
Using voters’ ward, division, time of day and voter number — coupled with historic turnout data for the wards that haven’t self reported — Tannen’s model estimates that, as of 11:48, some 62,881 Philadelphians have cast their vote across the city, based on self-reported data from 201 voters in 38 wards.
“Estimating turnout live requires simultaneously estimating two things: each Division’s relative mobilization and the time pattern of voters throughout the day,” Tannen wrote in the blog post announcing the tracker. “The 100th voter means something different in a Division that had 50 voters in 2014 than it does in a Division that had 200, and it means something different at 8 a.m. than it does at 7 p.m. Further, Philadelphia has 1,686 Divisions, and I don’t think we’ll get data on every Division (no matter how well my dedicated readers blast out the link). I use historic correlations among Divisions to guess the current turnout in Divisions for which no one has submitted data.”
“hey jonathan, how many people do you think you need to submit their voter number to make good estimates?”
“i dunno… fifty? i’d be floored if i got a hundred.”
134 Philadelphians have shared their turnout. As of 10:35.https://t.co/Cat1vDtwnZ
— Jonathan Tannen? (@jtannen215) May 15, 2018
But wait, there’s more!
Here are five more civic engagement tools for election day:
- Committee of Seventy’s Digital Ballot Tool: Prep for the voting booth with this online tool, powered by CivicEngine and a product of BallotReady.
- Philadelphia Votes polling place lookup: Enter your address and get your polling place through the website from the Office of the Philadelphia City Commissioners.
- Leverage: Keep tabs on this prototype-stage campaign finance tool — initially born at a Code for Philly hackathon — which looks to offer data on campaign finance via publicly available data.
- Ballot Box: Once the votes are tallied, use the digital tool to review and compare results from previous elections
- Committee of Seventy’s voter experience survey: After voting, tell the nonpartisan organization how things went.
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