Should tech managers setting compensation fear wage inflation?

Written by Technically Media CEO Chris Wink, Technical.ly’s new Culture Builder newsletter features tips on growing powerful teams and dynamic workplaces. Below is the latest edition we published. Sign up here to get the next one this Friday.

Wage inflation across the United States hasn’t been a concern for at least a generation.

During the crushing inflation of the late 1970s, increasing salaries by 10 to 20% year over year would only keep flat an employee’s purchasing power. Today, pay bumps like that are the stuff of a big promotion. That’s because year-over-year price inflation in this country hasn’t crossed even 3% since before The Great Recession.

After the distortions of the last year, including fiscal stimulus and pent-up pandemic demand, economists are debating inflation risks again. Demand is expected to surge this summer, so early consumer product prices are trending upward.

For those setting comp, the natural question: Will we see wage inflation, too?

To benchmark my own organizational budget the last 10 years, I would dutifully watch for the federal government’s projection for cost of living adjustments. For years that has meant very little; even raising salaries just 1 to 2% would be a genuine increase. From there, it’s been very stable to reward performance, experience growth and added responsibility.

What happens next is very much an open debate among economists. The U.S. Social Security Administration pegged its 2021 cost of living adjustment to 1.3%, though advocates have called to double that increase in the face of so much economic disruption.

This all will sound very foreign to anyone hiring software developers, where salaries have continued to grow through each of the last three major recessions. In 2019, 1.5 million people were employed as software developers in the United States at a median salary of $110,140, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the growth in demand is expected to continue at a blistering path.

As any hiring manager who is building a custom software team will tell you, many are paying double that — and still Technical.ly is reporting on expectations of high rates of post-pandemic turnover. The point, then, is that competitive hiring for in-demand roles have already outpaced core inflation.

The funny thing about inflation, though, is that it doesn’t exist until enough people think that it does exist. Widespread wage inflation like we saw in 1970 does not appear imminent. Still, don’t be surprised to field questions about the topic. That would be something new for most of us.

And now the links:

What else we’re reading

• Dissecting Fortune’s Newest 100 Best Companies to Work For List — It boiled down to this: “How are you treating your employees now, when things are at their worst?”
• New Research Shows Latest Trends Among TA Tech Providers — “58% of organizations surveyed are using or planning to use internal mobility capabilities this year.”
• Prudential Pulse of the American Worker Survey — “Increasingly, workers expect pandemic workplace adaptations to stick. Among all workers, 68% say a hybrid workplace model is ideal.”
• Survey: CHROs concerned about D&I, cultural change as post-pandemic workplace arrives — “Eighty-two percent of respondents said diversity and inclusion would be a top issue of concern at their organizations.”
• Monster: Nearly half of spring 2020 graduates still looking for work

Company culture stories we’ve published lately

• AR tech firm MVP Interactive is recommitting to the office with an Old City expansion
• ‘This is the time to listen’: Addressing the Chauvin verdict at work
• The Chauvin verdict is in. That doesn’t mean the workplace discussion is over
• Turnover is coming. Here’s what technologists say is key in retaining them right now
• The office is changing, not going away

P.S. Technical.ly will be addressing many of these topics at this year’s Introduced conference, happening during Philly Tech Week 2021 presented by Comcast. Register for free below.

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